When school leaders plan for a new year, enrolment projections are more than a headcount—they drive staffing, programming, and funding. Susan McWilliams’ Queen’s University discussion paper on declining enrolment in Ontario public schools highlights a reality that many districts across Canada have faced before, but under very different conditions today: fewer students, a highly unionized workforce, aging demographics, and budgets where most costs are tied to people.
For schools, declining enrolment is not simply a “downsize” story. It can trigger a chain reaction: funding pressure, program reductions, staffing surpluses in some regions and shortages in others, and difficult decisions about how to maintain student supports—especially specialized services—when dollars drop faster than fixed costs.
The Core Dynamic: Funding Falls Faster Than Costs
A key insight from the paper is that school board costs don’t shrink neatly when enrolment declines. Funding is closely tied to student numbers, but many costs are fixed or slow to change. Buildings still need heating and maintenance. Transportation routes don’t instantly disappear. Administrative requirements remain. And compensation is the largest budget line item.
Compensation dominates school board spending: roughly 80%–85% of total costs are related to staff compensation.
Per-student costs often rise as enrolment falls: fewer students can mean less revenue, while many expenses remain steady—pushing the cost per student upward.
Balanced budget rules intensify the pressure: boards typically must balance budgets annually, limiting their flexibility to “smooth out” multi-year declines.
This is why moderate enrolment decline can still feel like a budget crisis: the system can’t always reduce expenditures proportionately or quickly.
Demographics Are the Engine Behind the Trend
The paper points to broad demographic shifts that have been building for decades. Lower fertility rates and an aging population reduce the number of school-age children, while regional economic conditions and housing affordability can move families in or out of communities.
Lower birth rates: Canada’s fertility rate has been below replacement levels, contributing to smaller cohorts entering elementary grades.
Aging population: more Canadians are over 65 than under 15 in some comparisons cited, changing the age structure that supports school growth.
Local “micro” shifts: housing prices and job availability can cause localized enrolment drops even when a province-wide picture looks stable.
One important nuance: the relationship between population change and school capacity needs is not perfectly linear. Boards can transport students, adjust class sizes within limits, and operate schools below capacity. But those “buffers” have limits—and they can create inefficiencies when enrolment continues to slide.
Teacher Demand Isn’t a Free Market (and That Changes Everything)
In a typical market, higher wages might reduce hiring. But Ontario’s teacher labour market doesn’t operate like that. The paper emphasizes that the provincial government plays a dominant role through funding formulas, curriculum requirements, and policy decisions (including class size rules). Teachers are also heavily unionized, and wages are negotiated through collective bargaining.
As a result, teacher demand is driven primarily by:
student enrolment levels
government-set or negotiated class size targets
program and curriculum requirements
board fiscal capacity and staffing rules
Another major point: there isn’t really one “national” teacher labour market. It’s localized. A surplus in one region doesn’t automatically solve a shortage elsewhere, and subject-area qualifications can create pockets of shortage even when overall numbers suggest surplus.
Yesterday vs. Today: Why the 1970s Playbook Doesn’t Fully Work Now
Ontario has been through enrolment decline before. After the baby boom, boards used strategies such as school closures, early retirement incentives, hiring freezes, seniority-based layoffs, and class size increases. The paper argues that today’s environment makes many of these tools harder to use—or at least more complicated—because of:
An aging workforce and different retirement patterns
Pension solvency concerns that may limit early retirement incentives
More restrictive collective agreement language affecting staffing flexibility
Policy commitments (like class size caps) that can temporarily offset staffing reductions
In other words, boards may face declining enrolment without having the same “release valves” that helped manage workforce reductions in earlier decades.
Class Size Caps Can Mask Decline—But Often Only Temporarily
The paper highlights how policy decisions can alter the impact of enrolment decline. For example, primary class size caps (such as a 20:1 target) can require boards to maintain or add teachers even as enrolment drops, effectively delaying staffing reductions.
But once those caps are fully implemented and enrolment continues to fall—particularly in rural districts—boards can quickly swing into surplus staffing conditions. That can lead to layoffs, transfers, and pressure to pursue additional caps in higher grades as a way to stabilize staffing levels.
Specialized Programs Are Often the First to Feel the Squeeze
One of the most practical implications for school communities is what happens to specialized roles when funding tightens. Smaller schools may struggle to sustain positions that aren’t easily “justified” by enrolment-driven formulas.
The paper gives a concrete example: funding thresholds can make it difficult for average-sized elementary schools to support certain specialist roles. When enrolment is down, boards may reduce or share services such as:
teacher-librarians
guidance supports
music and physical education specialists
special education supports
other student services that are not strictly tied to per-pupil counts
This is where the “fewer students” narrative becomes a student experience issue. Even if class sizes remain stable, access to specialized supports can shrink—especially in smaller or declining communities.
The Aging Workforce, Retirement, and the Pension Puzzle
The paper describes a teaching workforce that has become increasingly “bifurcated”: many experienced veterans and fewer younger teachers. Over time, the share of teachers under 35 fell sharply, while the proportion over 45 rose. This matters because:
Costs rise: more teachers at the top of the salary grid can increase compensation costs even when enrolment declines.
Seniority rules shape who stays: layoffs often affect newer teachers first, potentially reinforcing an older workforce profile.
Retirements could offset surplus—but may not: early retirement incentives have historically helped create openings, but pension funding shortfalls can constrain those incentives.
The discussion of pension sustainability is particularly important for long-term planning. Defined benefit plans depend on a healthy ratio of contributors to retirees. The paper notes pressures such as longer lifespans, fewer contributors per retiree, and benefit payouts exceeding annual contributions in certain periods—factors that can force changes to retirement eligibility rules.
What This Means for School Leaders Planning Student Support Services
Declining enrolment doesn’t reduce student needs. In many cases, it increases the complexity of delivering services across dispersed schools with tighter budgets. For decision-makers, the big challenge is maintaining quality and equity while navigating staffing constraints and cost structures that don’t shrink smoothly.
From a service-delivery perspective, many boards look for approaches that are:
scalable: able to flex up or down as enrolment shifts across schools and regions
efficient: minimizing travel time, scheduling gaps, and underutilized capacity
equitable: ensuring smaller or rural schools can still access specialized supports
At TinyEYE, we work with schools to provide online therapy services that can help districts protect access to specialized supports even as staffing models and budgets change. When enrolment declines unevenly across a region, virtual service delivery can be one practical way to maintain continuity—without requiring every building to sustain every specialist role on-site.
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